Bitcoin has dipped below the $40k mark and is also below the $37.6k region and is trading near $35k at press time. The price has been heavily pushed down in recent hours and volatile even at the time of writing as buyers attempt to induce some reaction at $34.8k. On the higher timeframes, NEAR Protocol has had extreme bearish momentum behind it over the past week and has lost around 45% over the past week.
Source: NEAR/USDT on TradingView
Using the move from $8.08 to $17.66 in December, a set of Fibonacci Retracement levels (white) were plotted. The 38.2% and 50% levels at $14 and $12.87 have some confluence with horizontal supports at $13.18 and $14.
Over the past few days, the 12-hour chart has shown a large bearish candle as the price closed at $13.18 in pre-press trading. However, the buyers were exhausted in the following session and the price seems to be heading towards the $10 zone.
Further south on the chart, there is some support from $10.13, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. There is also a long-term support at $9.88. These are the places where NEAR can be reached in the following days/weeks.
The area between the 61.8% -78.6% retracement levels is usually the area where investors look to buy the asset. However, it remains unclear whether Bitcoin will be forced lower or if its bottom has already been reached.
Theoretical basis
Source: NEAR/USDT on TradingView
On the price chart, the 21-period moving average (orange) has yet to cross below the 55 SMA (green). This is an indication of how quickly the price has been forced to abandon the territory by the bears.
The RSI has failed to find support at the neutral 50 level, or even at 33, where the 12-hour RSI turned up in November. The Directional Movement Index has shown a strong uptrend. until 2022, but since its birth in the new year, the DMI has waned. In the past few trading sessions, DMI has signaled a clear downtrend.
OBV has also fallen over the past few days, although selling barely managed to dampen the buying that drove prices up, according to OBV.
Inference
It is uncertain how Bitcoin and the crypto market will react, as traditional markets show severe weakness. Unless a bottom has formed and some long-term bullish sentiment picks up, it would be unwise to buy NEAR as a long-term investment.